The European Business Council for Africa

The Week of 8 – 15 February 2019

Four conflict trends as seen by Crisis Group analysts

South Sudan: A government offensive launched in mid-January in the Equatoria region against rebels who refused to sign the peace deal continues, displacing thousands who describe widespread brutality against civilians. Crisis Group expert Alan Boswell says the repressive counter-insurgency is marring the recent gains toward peace and risks driving rebel recruitment and an escalation of hostilities.

Libya: The Libyan National Army (LNA) consolidated its control of the Al-Sharara oilfield in south-western Libya after local guards previously loyal to the Tripoli-based Government of National Accord (GNA) vowed to work under the LNA’s authority. Crisis Group expert Claudia Gazzini says Haftar’s increased military influence in the region could trigger a renewed power struggle with Tripoli-based authorities over the distribution of oil revenues.

Cameroon: An uptick in separatist violence in Anglophone regions killed several dozen people since Saturday and targeted the convoy of the governor of the Southwest region. Crisis Group expert Richard Moncrieff says the flare-up is related to the 11th February “National Youth Day” celebrations and the ten-day lock-down imposed by some separatists.

Iran: The U.S. co-hosted a Middle East conference in Warsaw on Wednesday and Thursday. It was promoted by Washington as a wide-ranging exchange on regional issues, says Crisis Group expert Ali Vaez, but participation and discussion largely focused on countering what the U.S. and its allies see as the threat posed by Iran.

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