The European Business Council for Africa

The Week of 15 – 22 February 2019

Four conflict trends as seen by Crisis Group analysts

India-Pakistan: A 14 February suicide attack by Pakistan-based militants in Indian-administered Kashmir killed more than 45 Indian soldiers. Crisis Group expert Laurel Miller says it is the worst terror attack in Kashmir for over three decades and could spark a sharp escalation in conflict between the nuclear-armed neighbours if India opts for even a limited retaliatory strike.

Russia-Ukraine: The EU sanctioned eight Russians on Monday in connection with Moscow’s 25 November use of force against Ukrainian naval vessels in waters off Crimea. Crisis Group expert Katharine Quinn-Judge says maritime tensions continue to simmer following this week’s Russian live fire exercises south of the peninsula, which signal Moscow’s preparedness to use force to defend its 2014 annexation.

Sudan: Two months of anti-government street demonstrations continue to grip Sudan. Crisis Group expert Murithi Mutiga says the movement has kept up its momentum and participation has grown geographically and across socio-economic classes, leading to a stalemate between the government and protesters.

Venezuela: President Maduro, who denies there is a humanitarian crisis, rejected aid from countries that recognise Juan Guaidó as president. Crisis Group expert Phil Gunson says armed forces have been ordered to block supplies at the border, and that there is little sign of the opposition realising its hopes that a moral dilemma will split the military and cause some to abandon the president.

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