The European Business Council for Africa

Three conflict trends as seen by Crisis Group analysts  

➤ Burkina Faso: A deadly attack on a Protestant church in the country’s north killed six people, including a pastor, on Sunday, days after gunmen targeted a school in the same region. Crisis Group expert Rinaldo Depagne says this is the first time a church has been attacked since 2015, reflecting the escalating violence that Burkina has suffered during the past four years. 

➤ Iran: The U.S. ended waivers granting eight countries exemptions from its sanctions on Iranian oil sales. Crisis Group expert Naysan Rafati says while the move will likely increase Iran’s financial malaise, the policy impact of Washington’s “maximum pressure” campaign is less assured. The more the Trump administration succeeds in pressuring Iran economically, the less Tehran has to lose if it decides to take retaliatory measures of its own.

 Venezuela: A short-lived military revolt led by opposition leader Juan Guaidó, involving skirmishes between pro-government and pro-opposition forces, was quickly subdued by security forces on Tuesday. Crisis Group expert Ivan Briscoe says the clear lesson from the 30 April events is that there can be no “winner-take-all” solution to Venezuela’s protracted crisis.

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