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Four conflict trends as seen by Crisis Group analysts  
 

➤ Kenya: An Al-Shabaab attack on the Manda Bay Airfield on Sunday killed one American soldier and two U.S. military contractors. Crisis Group expert Murithi Mutiga says the attack marked the first time that the militant group had targeted a Kenyan military facility housing U.S. forces. Al-Shabaab remains a resilient organisation that has shown a continued capacity to stage assaults in Somalia and neighbouring countries, despite a decade-long effort by African Union troops to combat its insurgency. 

➤ Libya: Presidents Erdoğan and Putin called for a ceasefire in Libya, only days after Ankara deployed Turkish officers and allied Syrian fighters. Crisis Group expert Claudia Gazzini says Turkey’s intervention, aimed at preventing the Tripoli government’s collapse and safeguarding a maritime deal, is not entirely at odds with the sudden call for a ceasefire. Ankara hopes that recalibrating the balance of power on the ground will create more propitious conditions for peace talks, but it is unclear whether the rival Libyan factions that Ankara and Moscow respectively support will actually halt hostilities.

➤ Nigeria: Chad withdrew its 1,200-strong military force from Nigeria’s northern Borno region. The force was deployed in early 2019 to fight the Islamic State in West Africa Province (ISWAP), a Boko Haram splinter faction. Crisis Group consultant Vincent Foucher says Chad’s withdrawal may be motivated by the need to address mounting jihadist attacks on its own territory. In Nigeria, there is a risk that ISWAP could quickly capitalise on the departure. The group launched an unsuccessful attack soon after the withdrawal on the former Chadian base in Monguno, one of the largest cities in the state

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