Despite the numerous, lingering negative effects of the pandemic — from global supply chain disruption and rising inflationary pressures to recurrent waves of COVID-19 infections and the emergence of threatening variants — the globalisation of growth resilience will emerge as one of the most important stories when economic historians reflect on this time. In a major and synchronised reversal, growth bounced back in 2021 in one of the strongest post-recession recoveries in decades.

Although the recovery rate was uneven across regions and countries (World Bank, 2021a; IMF, 2021a), output expansion was exceptionally strong in many advanced as well as emerging market and developing economies, the base effect notwithstanding. Botswana’s GDP, which expanded by 12.5%, making it the fastest-growing economy in Africa and one of the fastest growing in the world, exemplifies these circumstances among developing economies.

Owing to substantial fiscal and monetary support, GDP growth was particularly strong in advanced economies, where aggregate output in most countries is expected to regain its pre-pandemic trend path in the near term (IMF, 2022a), though the negative spillovers from the Ukraine crisis could delay the earlier forecast convergence to trend growth.

The crucial case in point is the US, where growth rose significantly above potential, skewing the distribution of global growth towards advanced economies.

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