ECDPM - GREAT insights magazine : The Complex Link Between Climate Change and Conflict
Elements of change: Climate and conflict in Africa
Climate change is a global phenomenon that affects all life on earth. For the first time ever, the entire planet is undergoing a singular climatic transformation. Globally, land has already warmed 1.5°C and, owing to past greenhouse gas emissions and inertia in the climate system, the earth and its atmosphere will continue to warm until around mid-century, even if all emissions stopped today. Unprecedented heatwaves, food shortages and extreme storms will likely hit us before 2030 and intensify with further warming.
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ECDPM - GREAT insights magazine : The Complex Link Between Climate Change and Conflict
Securitisation without representation: Yet another reason why Africa needs a permanent seat on the UN Security Council
Climate change is increasingly acknowledged as a global security issue, and the UN Security Council’s mandate over it is growing. Yet, Africa still lacks equal standing with other regions and the permanent members of the Security Council. Without permanent representation of Africa on the Security Council, the continent is rendered a subject, not an agent, of global climate governance.
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ECDPM - The Geopolitical Commission and the partnership with Africa
Mission possible? The Geopolitical Commission and the partnership with Africa
The new European Commission takes office against a backdrop of global challenges emanating from near and far, including climate change, trade wars and cyber threats. With this in mind, Commission President-elect Ursula von der Leyen, in her opening statement and mission letters, communicated a vision of a commission that is “more strategic, more assertive and more united” in its approach to foreign policy. Characterising her incoming team as a “Geopolitical Commission”, she emphasised the need for the EU to protect and update multilateralism, to develop greater strategic autonomy and to better link internal and external policy.
This brief explores the opportunity that this geopolitical framing offers for a more strategic EU-Africa relationship – and a real partnership of equals and mutual interest. At the same time, it points to the dangers of empty rhetoric for the EU’s credibility as a foreign policy actor. In renaming the European Commission’s development portfolio “international partnerships” and outlining plans for a new comprehensive strategy for Africa, von der Leyen seeks to signal a more political approach. Yet, the EU will need to show that this time it has the will and ability to move from words to meaningful action.
First and foremost, if partnership is the aim, the Commission needs to address the question of whether this is a strategy “for” Africa or rather “with” Africa. Further, unless the Commission and member states allow the European External Action Service (EEAS) to play a more significant role in coordinating Africa policy, the political and strategic elements of the EU-Africa relationship are unlikely to be sufficiently prioritised. Parallel and competing EU structures for working with Africa risk undermining a strategic continent to continent approach and creating breaks on African integration. Any comprehensive strategy will have to honestly acknowledge and address the fundamental contradictions inherent in these multiple EU structures.
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Crisis Group - A New Approach for the UN to stabilise the DR Congo
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Crisis Group - New Podcast : Kenya and Somalia Quarrel Over Offshore Oil
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Listen to the podcast here
Crisis Group - Open Letter to the Friends of Sudan
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Crisis Group – The Week of 29 November – 6 December 2019
ON OUR RADAR
Three conflict trends as seen by Crisis Group analysts
➤ Myanmar: Myanmar’s leader Aung San Suu Kyi will speak at the International Court of Justice on Wednesday to respond to charges of genocide against Rohingya Muslims. Crisis Group expert Richard Horsey says Aung San Suu Kyi likely feels that she must do all she can to defend against what most people in Myanmar see as biased and politically-motivated charges. Her defence of Myanmar's conduct will galvanise public support domestically, but will almost certainly further strain relations with the West.
➤ Turkey-Libya: Ankara and the Tripoli-based government signed an agreement last Friday on maritime border delimitations in the eastern Mediterranean. Crisis Group expert Claudia Gazzini says for months Turkey has demanded Tripoli's recognition of its claims in the sea in exchange for continued military assistance. The deal thus signals Prime Minister Serraj's new-found determination to break the siege of Tripoli by Field Marshal Haftar but it also risks undermining ongoing UN-backed efforts to end hostilities and could complicate Ankara’s disputes with Greece, the EU and Egypt over energy exploration.
➤ Ukraine: Russia, Ukraine, France and Germany meet in Paris on Monday for the first Normandy format meeting for more than three years aimed at breaking the stalemate in Ukraine's five-year-old war. Crisis Group expert Katharine-Quinn Judge says that while conciliatory moves made by President Zelenskyy have paved the way for the summit, both Kyiv and Moscow will likely stick to their red lines. A comprehensive path toward peace is unlikely to emerge, but the meeting could make progress toward exchanging prisoners and safely disengaging troops along the front line in Donbas.
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Crisis Group – The Week of 22 – 29 November 2019
ON OUR RADAR
Four conflict trends as seen by Crisis Group analysts
➤ Lebanon: Dozens of demonstrators were injured in violent clashes in Beirut, Tripoli and smaller towns as tensions mount among rival political groups amid a struggle to find a new prime minister and form a new government. Crisis Group expert Heiko Wimmen says that without a new government that can launch an emergency rescue plan to stabilse the country's sliding economy, serious social upheaval must be expected as tens of thousands are at risk of losing their income, savings and work.
➤ Mali: Thirteen French soldiers were killed after two helicopters collided during a mission targeting Islamic State-linked jihadists in Mali. Crisis Group expert Mathieu Pellerin says the incident draws attention to France’s military mission in the Sahel, involving 4,500 troops, that has been struggling to respond to a surge of increasingly sophisticated attacks by jihadist groups and their expanding recruitment in recent months. A general rise in skills and more fluid command structures are complicating counter-insurgency efforts.
➤ Mexico: President Trump indicated on Tuesday that the U.S. plans to designate Mexico’s drug cartels as foreign terrorist organisations. Crisis Group expert Falko Ernst says the decision fails to understand that the conflict is not about the “good state” versus the “evil cartels”, as the dividing line between the two is very porous. The designation would merely continue the heavy-handed militarised approach that over the past thirteen years has failed to defeat Mexico’s organised crime.
Crisis Group – The Week of 15 – 22 November 2019
ON OUR RADAR
Four conflict trends as seen by Crisis Group analysts
➤ Georgia: Widespread public anger led to street protests in Tbilisi after the parliament failed to adopt proportional representation as the country’s electoral system. Crisis Group expert Olesya Vartanyan says with no deal in sight that can end the current impasse and unrest, political tensions will remain high and difficult to manage. To end the crisis, the ruling party should initiate discussions on electoral reform.
➤ Israel/Palestine: The Trump administration announced this week that it did not view Israeli settlements in the West Bank as a violation of international law. Crisis Group expert Ofer Zalzberg says the move accelerates Washington’s politicisation of international law although in itself it is unlikely to prompt major changes on the ground. However, it provides tailwind for those who wish to annex the West Bank, and undermines whatever credibility the U.S. still retained as a potential broker of Israeli-Palestinian negotiations.
➤ Ukraine-Russia: Moscow returned three Ukrainian naval vessels that it seized last November in the Black Sea. Crisis Group expert Katharine Quinn-Judge says few in Kyiv are impressed with what they see as a token and long-overdue gesture. Hardliners see it as part of a Russian campaign to appear conciliatory while using Kyiv’s newfound appetite for peace to extract concessions. But many Ukrainians hope the 9 December Normandy format summit with Russia, Germany and France will bring new momentum to end the five-year-old conflict.
Crisis Group – The Week of 6 – 13 December 2019
ON OUR RADAR
Three conflict trends as seen by Crisis Group analysts
➤ Niger: At least 71 soldiers were killed in a raid by Islamist militants in western Niger, the third assault on the Inates military base in recent months and the deadliest attack against the Nigerien military in decades. Crisis Group expert Ibrahim Yahaya Ibrahim says the deadliness of the attack demonstrates that the jihadists are gaining confidence to frontally attack military bases and inflict heavy losses on the army. The Nigerien government and its Western partners should supplement any military action with a political approach that includes efforts to engage in a dialogue with militants.
➤ U.S.-Iran: Washington and Tehran exchanged two prisoners on Saturday in a rare instance of diplomatic engagement. Crisis Group expert Ali Vaez says the successful swap demonstrates that both sides are capable of mutually beneficial deal-making and can deliver. But it is questionable whether they can build on this to not only resolve other detainee cases, but also widen channels of communication in order to de-escalate bilateral tensions.