EBCAM

: 03 December 2018

The Week of 23 – 30 November 2018

ON OUR RADAR
Five conflict trends as seen by Crisis Group analysts

➤ Ukraine-Russia: Russia engaged in its first acknowledged use of force against Ukraine since the 2014 Crimea annexation. Crisis Group experts Katharine Quinn-Judge and Anna Arutunyan say the incident was Moscow’s show of strength in what it claims are sovereign waters and Kyiv's response to this aggression was partly informed by Ukrainian President Poroshenko's desire to bolster support ahead of March elections.

➤ Afghanistan: One day after a Taliban attack killed three U.S. personnel – the deadliest day for U.S. forces in Afghanistan this year – President Ghani announced a new plan for peace that would require at least five years. Crisis Group expert Borhan Osman says the rising death toll and mounting costs of the war are pushing Western allies to seek a faster route to peace.

➤ U.S.-Mexico: Pressure mounted at the Mexico-U.S. border on 25 November after U.S. guards fired tear gas at around 500 Central American migrants. Crisis Group expert Sofía Martínez says that even if the main push factor to migrate from their home countries is the economy, many asylum-seekers are also escaping political instability and gang violence.

➤ Cameroon: A suicide bomber wounded at least 29 people on Wednesday in Amchide in Cameroon’s restive Far North. Crisis Group expert Hans De Marie Heungoup says that while some degree of normality has returned to Amchide since Boko Haram’s large-scale attacks in 2014-2015, the bombing is a reminder that the jihadist group remains a potent threat.

➤ U.S.-China: The U.S. Navy on Wednesday sailed warships through the Taiwan Strait for the third time this year. Crisis Group expert Michael Kovrig says tensions over Taiwan will continue as the Trump administration steps up shows of support for Taipei in the face of Chinese pressure.

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: 03 December 2018

Analysis and News Worth Knowing on Africa from Monday to Friday. Provided by our Partner https://nurmara.com/

The site is updated weekdays at 10:00 am GMT. Depending on news flow stories are occasionally updated during the day.

19. December 2018 - Déjà vu for Madagascar

18. December 2018 - Big trouble for big oil in Nigeria?

17. December - Where is the ‘new’ Zimbabwe?

14. December - Washington is going backwards in Africa

13. December 2018 - It’s a bad time to launch an African airline

12. December 2018 - Should we care about the UN’s migration pact?

11. December 2018 - What is happening in Somalia?

10. December 2018 - Could the Sahara solve Africa’s power problem?

07. December 2018 - There is more to Asia than Beijing

06. December 2018 - Congo needs to put its money where its mouth is

05. December - Angola is stirring

04. December 2018 - Africa is the big loser of OPEC’s decline

03. December 2018 - Who cares about COP24?

: 27 November 2018

ECDPM's weekly update on EU - Africa relations and international cooperation

A rather sombre European Council on Sunday approved the UK Withdrawal Agreement in Brussels, which was fittingly covered by fog. The British Prime Minister now has two weeks to convince the Parliament back home that this is the best, if not the only possible, deal.

In the meantime, here in Brussels, the 27 member states are giving signs that they are keen to move on. What is sure is that they will have to pick up the pace of the negotiations on the next EU budget. Just as well, since we have been continuing our in-depth analysis of the proposal on the table. € 89.2 billion is the sum allocated to the new foreign policy and development instrument – the NDICI, for the acronym buffs. It’s early stages still, but we wanted to be the first to look at how this money could be spent – the programming, for the EU jargon buffs.

Some form of ‘programming’ is hopefully also going to take place in Poland from next week, when ministers, officials and a big chunk of the climate community will meet to discuss the implementation of the Paris Agreement on climate. There seems to be a renewed sense of urgency and a need to show progress. But, as Mariella Di Ciommo and Sanne Thijssen write in their blog, the European Union should show its international partners how far it is willing to go to address climate change.

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: 27 November 2018

The Week of 16 – 23 November 2018

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: 21 November 2018

ECDPM's weekly update on EU - Africa relations and international cooperation

On this side of the Mediterranean, all we are talking about is Brexit. What will Prime Minister Theresa May do? Is the UK parliament going to vote for her proposed withdrawal agreement? What do the remaining 27 EU member states think about it? Is there going to be a second referendum? Will the UK get out without a deal? You will have read about all this and the possible consequences of each of these scenarios. What you might not have read yet is, if we step back a little, what each of these possible outcomes means for the EU and the UK when it comes to aid, trade and the relationship with Africa. Look no further: Andrew Sherriff and Emmanuel De Groof wrote a seven-point piece on just that.

In the meanwhile, there was a very different atmosphere on the other side of the Mediterranean, where the leaders of the 55 African Union member states met to discuss how to reform the big African institution. At least the rhetoric was one of unity, decisiveness and optimism. We have collected for you the key information on the Summit in Addis Ababa.

To further contrast the moods in the two continents, the UN poverty envoy published a hard-hitting report on the impact of austerity in the UK, while this week Africa celebrates industrialisation week, focusing on how to convert high economic growth rates – an average of 5.5% annually versus a European average of 1.7% – into more meaningful economic and social results through industrialisation.

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: 21 November 2018

ECDPM's weekly update on EU - Africa relations and international cooperation

In December 2010, Mohamed Bouazizi, a Tunisian street vendor, set himself on fire to protest against the regime of Ben Ali. His tragic gesture marks the beginning of what is known as the ‘Arab Spring’. Since then, we have witnessed major changes in the broader region, and we are constantly reminded of the fragile economic and political situation. But how has the situation really changed for citizens living in North African countries, eight years on? Our last Great Insights of the year, entirely devoted to North Africa, gives you a set of pictures and analyses with more granular detail than the sweeping headlines we have become used to reading. And to know what we have been doing on North Africa, do have a look at our updated dossier.

As you probably have noticed, we have spent a lot of energy analysing peacebuilding and the reasons why some European countries (and the European Union institutions) decide to support and invest in it – or not. We have published and presented a summary of all key findings and two of the four case studies – Sweden and Germany. The next two case studies will come out soon and, once available, they too will be added to a new tool we have developed to give you a complete overview, in an easy-to-navigate way, of all our work on the matter. We welcome your feedback.

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: 21 November 2018

The Week of 9 – 16 November 2018

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: 21 November 2018

The Weeks of 26 October – 9 November 2018

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: 06 November 2018

ECDPM's weekly update on EU - Africa relations and international cooperation

This week is Geneva Peace Week, which will bring together the relevant UN bodies, NGOs and leading academic and other experts involved in the peacebuilding business. There will be plenty of discussions on how best to find peaceful solutions to violent conflicts, building on recent lessons learnt. For the past 1.5 years, we have looked at the factors determining peacebuilding efforts by the EU and several European member states. Today, we are proud to launch our second case study, focusing on Sweden. Pauline Veron and Andrew Sherriff conclude that the country remains a peacebuilding champion, but that the rise of the right-wing populist party and the resurgence of Russia could threaten its work in the future.

You might not know, but do now, that Côte d’Ivoire has become, almost overnight, the world’s largest producer of cashew nuts. We have a paper – in French – on the country’s positive example which underlines the importance of high-level political will and a participatory policy-making process for other governments seeking to achieve similar successes in the agricultural sector.

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